This morning the volatility index rose to 37.57 (the highest reading since October 2002) many buyers/traders were able to jump in the market with long positions at this level. Perhaps this was a notion of psyche, as we finally got the well needed VIX spike to indicate a market bottom. Tomorrow AAPL reports earnings could lift the markets. Look out for a high volume reversal day.
But bear in mind, today should have been a day of capitulation. The FED clearly panicked. You can't solve the economic problems with cheaper money. Fighting fire with fire, ultimately will cause more problems down the road. The only chance we have to escape a bear market is positive economic data and readings that indicate we may not be in a recession.
Would I rather trust the Fed or the free markets? I was utterly surprised and somewhat disgusted to see the FED interfere with the free markets. You should allow things to work themselves out.
They did keep headlines from being inked "Black Tuesday" around the world...but they may have created more hardship later on. The fed made 08 more painful then it had to be. Imagine if Ben "The Helicopter" Bernanke didn't waste all that ammo last year and was able to gradually cut rates. Ultimately the market would have looked much healthier technically and inflation would not have been such an issue. George Soros might be right, this is the worse he has seen the financial market since pre-1944.
We will see how this plays out. I'm loving this volatility. Covered my HLCS short at 14.32. Edit: Covered my FSLR intra-day short at 171. Sold my MELI calls for a reasonable profit (the FED cut saved me and many others who were trapped). Good luck. Now i'm in CASH waiting for the charts to show me something worthwhile.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
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