The markets are very confusing by nature. With all this day-to-day volatility my take is only the traders are making all the money.
You should probably wait until this "wedge" reveals itself on the dow.
The price oscillation is clearly tightening, and we closed a little bit below the wedge, but the problem with "wedges" is they don't give you any direction up or down, all we know is there will be a big move once it breaks out.
I didn't like the stochastic divergence as MOS rose, but it's a great hype play and you should never trade against the hype, just be careful in this market. Today might have been a good day to lighten your load, but not load up quite yet. I'd like to see this come down some and then trade sideways before I'd want to enter. But if you're gonna short anything energy look at DVN, all that upward momentum and zero news, not the best of breed company. This could have some big gap downs, but of course the overall market breath and oil need to retreat some.
JASO should retrace back to the 61.8% fib, at 15.15. Before possibly forming a bottom, if it breaks below that 15.15 level, short as many shares as you can get your hands on, but look out for a reversal. On the upside the next shorting point - crucial fib level - is 19.13. If it can't break that the ride is almost definitely over for JASO. STO looks poised to sell off this recent bounce. And turned down right
on the intermediate trend line. But cover it breaks the trend line on the upside.
Keep your eyes on the VIX, it should send us signals before the overall market will.
Nice close on AUY today, but once it breaks 17.50 (knock on wood, if it does) I'll probably be looking to sell it. I only have 10 contracts.
We will probably gap down tomorrow. Then they might fill the gap in the indexes and move us back into the wedge. So tomorrow morning might be an OK point to get rid of the q puts, especially if the VIX spikes upwards.
According to my fibs the low of the day on the S&P won't be below 1330. If we do break that then look for 1317.
Disclaimer: One shouldn't focus all their attention on these fib levels, they're more of a guideline to the market forces.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
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