Sunday, April 13, 2008

VOLATILITY GALORE

Interesting week ahead of us..

1) Options expiration
2) Financials Report

Currently...

Asian markets are tumbling..but our futures are not off as much as I expected.

I see two different scenarios at hand:

1) too many institutions probably still have too much inventory on hand, so they may "prop" these markets up before the earnings

2) or they short this market (beginning of the week) prior to the earnings and then spike it back up (Reverse of what you might see in a bull market - buy the rumor sells the news - BUT a sell the rumor, buy the news), before unloading in May.

We probably won't see any "huge" crashes...they will relentlessly put a positive spin on "not-so-bad" news, but we know the overall market trend is down. We will make news lows before we make new highs.

Our RSW position should pay off in the long term and the intermediary we should not worry about the minor market fluctuations (the games the institutional trading floors have to play when unloading stock).

SOME IDEAS:

1) Creating some option spreads in the front month, on some of these volatile stocks that are reporting such as GOOG, BIDU, or a financial such as C.

2) SWC is poised to drop hard, ALL day tomorrow. Platinum, palladium prices are tanking in the Asian markets. Probably a good place to scalp some profits either with puts or a short position (if you can find shares).

3) I would like to buy up some SID on a pullback...it's a Brazilian steel company, with a very healthy chart and GREAT balance sheet.

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